Trump's Abortion Announcement Finally Exposed Him for What He Really Is: A Politician
PLUS: A review of "Ripley" starring Andrew Scott AND an NBA postseason preview
Perversely, Donald Trump has a reputation among voters for “telling it like it is.” It’s odd so many Americans would view such a blatantly dishonest man that way, but Trump has convinced many of his supporters that his offensiveness, outrageousness, brashness, and imbecility reveal his authenticity as a politician. Trump’s admirers like that he is unscripted, unedited, and holds nothing back, that he speaks his mind and is “politically incorrect,” meaning he has not been brainwashed by the Washington establishment. When attacked for saying something unpopular or indecent, Trump often responds by implying he was only stating what many people were already thinking but afraid to say; in other words, that only he was strong enough to express a truth or point of view the nation’s elite had suppressed. This has earned Trump a reputation as a sort of anti-politician who, unlike most politicians in this country, deals with issues head-on and levels with the American people.
Trump’s reputation as an “anti-politician” fell to pieces last week. The issue that did it was abortion. As president, Trump appointed three of the Supreme Court justices who constituted the five-judge majority in the 2022 Dobbs decision that overturned Roe v. Wade. Dobbs ended national protections for women seeking abortions and allowed states to regulate the procedure. Some states enacted very strict laws, but many states—including “red” ones like Ohio and Kansas—have moved to protect access. Public opinion polls show a solid majority of Americans are upset with Dobbs and want to pass laws that secure a woman’s right to choose. It’s become a massive political liability for Republicans, one that can cost them elections.
The question was how Trump—a man of questionable moral fiber who has staked his conservative bona fides on the legacy of an ultraconservative Supreme Court he shaped—would navigate the abortion debate. He flopped. After months spent promising he would announce a solution to the abortion debate that would make “both sides very happy,” Trump decided to punt on the matter by declaring in a social media post he believed abortion was an issue best left to the states to decide. Here’s the word salad he tossed together to explain his position (so glad he took the time to compose a thoughtful, coherent statement on this pressing national issue):
My view is now that we have abortion where everyone wanted it from a legal standpoint, the states will determine by vote or legislation, or perhaps both. And whatever they decide must be the law of the land. In this case, the law of the state. Many states will be different. Many will have a different number of weeks, or some will have more conservative than others, and that’s what they will be. At the end of the day, this is all about the will of the people. You must follow your heart, or, in many cases, your religion or your faith. Do what’s right for your family and do what’s right for yourself, do what’s right for your children, do what’s right for our country and vote. So important to vote. At the end of the day, it’s all about the will of the people. …
This 50-year battle over Roe v. Wade took it out of the federal hands and brought it into the hearts, minds, and vote of the people in each state. It was really something. Now it’s up to the states to do the right thing….You must follow your heart on this issue, but remember, you must also win elections to restore our culture and in fact to save our country, which is currently and very sadly a nation in decline. …
Always go by your heart, but we must win. We have to win.
For a self-styled anti-politician, that’s the most politician-y statement on abortion Trump could have made. After claiming responsibility for toppling Roe, Trump washes his hands of the issue by stating he doesn’t need to have an opinion on abortion because now it’s up to the states to figure out what to do about it on their own, as if that’s what this debate has always been about for so many Republicans: Not “life,” but jurisdictional principles. All this time, anti-abortion activists had assumed “states rights” was a Trojan horse for “pro-life” policies, but now Trump was telling them it’s actually the other way around, that all that rhetoric about protecting the lives of the unborn was just a way to rile the people up in order to deliver some jurisprudential consistency to a handful of frustrated constitutional scholars. Sure, Trump is merely echoing Dobbs, but cultural conservatives expect more from a Republican president in a post-Roe world.
And just look at the language Trump uses to describe the way abortion policy will now be decided in the United States. Each state will have a “different” policy and regulate abortion after a “different number of weeks,” with some states adopting “more conservative [policies] than others.” When voters head to the polls to vote on this issue, Trump advises them to “follow your heart” and “do what’s right for yourself(!).” He emphasizes it’s up to voters to “decide” the issue. When I right-click on the word “decide” in Microsoft Word and search for synonyms, the first word that pops up is “choose.” The man the Republican Party just nominated for president for a third consecutive time—the guy many Republicans consider the most pro-life president in American history—just told voters not that he thinks abortion is wrong but that they have a “choice” to make on abortion.
But then Trump advises them not to make a moral choice when it comes to abortion. No, he wants conservatives to set aside their deeply held beliefs about when life begins and vote strategically so they can win. And by “they,” he really means “he.” What it all comes down to is that Trump knows abortion is a losing issue for both him and his party, so he wants his followers not to do the very important thing conservatives have always wanted to do once they gained control of the Supreme Court and overturned Roe. It’s apparently more important having the right people in charge (presumably so the right person can weasel out of whatever legal jeopardy he finds himself in and then use his office to further enrich himself) than it is for those in charge to actually use their power to deliver for those who voted for him and make a difference in the world. Clever, right? There’s winning involved, but no reward (unless you’re Donald Trump). Sure sounds enticing.
Kind of takes the shine off Trump. Conservatives have long complained too many Republican politicians pay them lip service when it comes to abortion, that their elected officials talk big but never follow through because they fear the political consequences. Trump, though, was different. And then, when it counted this past week, what did Trump do? Trump gave them lip service, like so many disappointing Republican politicians before him.
Trump’s declaration drew a rebuke from two notable conservatives. The first came from none other than his former vice president Mike Pence, who wrote on social media
President Trump’s retreat on the Right to Life is a slap in the face to the millions of pro-life Americans who voted for him in 2016 and 2020….[T]oday, too many Republican politicians are all too ready to wash their hands of the battle for life. Republicans win on life when we speak the truth boldly and stand on the principle that we all know to be true – human life begins at conception and should be defended from womb to tomb. However much our Republican nominee or other candidates seek to marginalize the cause of life, I know pro-life Americans will never relent until we see the sanctity of life restored to the center of American law in every state in this country.
Marjorie Dannenfelser, the president of the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America organization, shared similar sentiments: “We are deeply disappointed in President Trump’s position. Unborn children and their mothers deserve national protections and national advocacy from the brutality of the abortion industry. The Dobbs decision clearly allows both states and Congress to act.”
Most Republican lawmakers, however, used Trump’s comments as cover to avoid dealing with an issue that has blown up in their faces. As CNN reported, Republicans in close races throughout the nation have been scrambling to soften their abortion positions. That includes Republican Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake, who wrote on social media that “abortion is the ultimate sin”…oops, sorry, that’s what she said when she was running for governor in 2022. Actually, Lake has always been for states deciding choosing their own abortion law, which explains why the Senate candidate posted on social media this week, “I agree with President Trump: I do NOT support a federal abortion ban, policy should be up to individual states.”
But about those “individual states,” particularly Lake’s state of Arizona. The day after Trump made his announcement, the Arizona State Supreme Court ruled a near-total ban on abortion passed during the Civil War when Arizona was still a territory remained in force in the state. Lake declared her opposition to the ruling, although two years earlier she had praised that 1864 law by saying Arizona had “a great law on the books right now” and that if Roe v. Wade was overturned, “we will be a state where we will not be taking the lives of our unborn anymore.” States rights champion Donald Trump also agreed the Arizona law went too far and then urged the Arizona legislature to repeal the law, which suggests to me he actually does have some idea about where the line ought to be drawn in this debate. (Earlier this year, he had floated a 16 week ban, which he said he liked because it’s an even number.) Given the chance on Wednesday to change the Arizona law, legislative Republicans—some of whom began backing away from their most extreme abortion rhetoric to distance themselves from the ruling—gaveled out of session.
Suddenly, Trump’s “states rights” position looked too clever by half. “The most pro-life president ever” looked pretty wishy-washy on abortion on Monday, and his effort to find a reasonable middle ground on the issue backfired when a conservative court in a must-win state in the 2024 election took him up on his offer to let states choose their own abortion laws and fell back upon a near-total ban originally passed when Confederate forces were still fighting over control of its territory. In the meantime, Republicans stumbled all over themselves trying to assure voters they weren’t hopelessly out-of-step with public opinion on the issue without actually doing anything to prove it or alienate anti-abortion activists.
Back in 2012, the Obama campaign had to figure out how to go after Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, who had governed Massachusetts as a moderate but had shifted hard to the right in that year’s Republican primary. One of the issues Romney had gone back and forth on over the years was abortion. The Obama campaign could have labeled him a flip-flopper to suggest he couldn’t be trusted. Instead, they painted Romney as an arch-conservative out of step with mainstream America. Obama’s campaign had concluded that branding Romney a flip-flopper could inadvertently highlight Romney’s moderate record and encourage moderate voters to support him.
Like Romney, Trump is also a flip-flopper when it comes to abortion. Over the past 25 years, he’s held positions all over the place on the issue, some of which appear borne of ignorance. His latest equivocation on the issue is an effort to distance himself from a politically poisonous position.
But calling Trump a flip-flopper (for moderating his abortion position) or an extremist (for orchestrating the fall of Roe v. Wade) on abortion threatens to either legitimize him in the eyes of moderates or buttress his support among conservatives. No, when it comes to abortion, I’d call Trump a liar. No one has any idea what Trump actually thinks on abortion or what he would do on the issue if elected president. He’s lied about so much in the past, there’s no reason to trust him on abortion now. Maybe he’ll revert to a more pro-life position if he returns to the White House, but it’s just as reasonable to assume he’ll continue to sell out the anti-abortion movement to maintain his standing in the polls. All I know is he’s lied to a bunch of Americans on an issue Americans of all political stripes expect clarity on.
Most Americans know Trump is a liar. Even his supporters know that. The catch, however, is that Trump’s supporters have always assumed Trump lies on their behalf and to advance their causes. Last week may have been the first time many of Trump’s supporters worried they might end up on the losing end of one of Trump’s deceptions. Is Trump just trying to trick pro-choice Americans into voting for him? Or has he been playing his supporters all along by leading them on with pro-life rhetoric before changing his tone when it becomes too politically perilous for him? Why is the strongman—the bully who always gets his way, who fights on their behalf—backing down from the fight his most ardent supporters have been itching to have? Maybe Trump isn’t so exceptional after all. Maybe he’s just another no-good, slick and shifty politician.
Signals and Noise
BREAKING: Iran launched over 300 missiles and drones against Israel on Saturday as retaliation for an Israeli missile strike in Damascus that killed a senior Iranian general. Nearly all missiles and drones were intercepted by Israeli air defenses.
Paul Glastris of Washington Monthly compared Trump and Biden to see who has done a better job advancing their agendas. Here’s a quick breakdown:
Lawrence Delevingne and Douglas Gillison of Reuters found a second Trump administration would likely roll back Wall Street regulations, including those implemented following the 2008 banking crash.
Back in 2016, Democrats encouraged media not to amplify Trump’s rhetoric by giving him so much airtime, Now, Natasha Korecki and Alex Seitz-Wald of NBC News report Democrats want the media to shine a brighter light on Trump’s unhinged remarks. MORE: “Why is the Press Making Trump Seem More Normal” by Dan Pfeiffer
Citing Joe Biden’s animated SOTU Address, Don Trump suggested Biden is using cocaine.
Given his legal plight and the possibility he may go to prison, Trump keeps comparing himself (absurdly) to Nelson Mandela.
Don Trump called out two witnesses in his upcoming hush money trial in a blatant violation of the gag order the judge in the case placed on Trump.
By James Romoser of Politico: “How Donald Trump Gets Special Treatment in the Legal System” (“Today, Trump routinely spouts invective far more inflammatory than anything [Dallas City Councilmember Don] Hill said. He denigrates prosecutors. He lies about his cases. He vilifies the judges overseeing them — and then vilifies their wives and daughters, too. Yet Trump has never faced the swift repercussions that were imposed on Hill — and are routinely imposed on other defendants in America. Instead, Trump gets special treatment. ‘I can’t imagine any other defendant posting on social media about a judge’s family and not being very quickly incarcerated,’ said Russell Gold, a law professor at the University of Alabama.”)
Aaron Blake of the Washington Post examines how the judge in Trump’s “hush money” case has framed it as an “election interference” case.
Two conservative activists agreed to pay a $1 million settlement to the New York attorney general’s office for running a 2020 voter suppression campaign targeting Black voters.
Steven Shepard of Politico looks at how Trump has improved his standing with young voters while Biden has improved his standing with older voters.
Pew Research found that Catholics now lean Republican by a 52-44% margin. Catholics have long been considered a critical swing demographic in the United States, but that designation is shifting as religiosity (how often someone attends church) takes on a greater role in shaping voting patterns.
Ohio has now joined Alabama by informing the Biden campaign the Democratic convention will occur after the deadline to submit names for inclusion on the state’s ballot. (I’m oh-so-sure the Supreme Court would reject such shenanigans after it found states could not bar Trump from their ballots on account of his participation in an insurrection.)
Don Trump is urging his supporters to buy up Truth Social stock, which is tanking after activist investors and MAGA devotees had driven up its price following its debut a few weeks ago. Much of Trump’s net worth—and his potential capacity to pay his legal bills and fund his campaign—is tied up in the value of the stock.
Jessica Piper of Politico reports super PAC spending is a whopping 2.5 times higher at this point in the election cycle than it was four years ago, with many organizations pushing the boundaries of what campaign finance law allows.
Roger Sollenberger and Mini Racker of The Daily Beast dig into Ted Cruz’s very shady podcast, which is operated by a pro-Cruz super PAC that has pocketed hundreds of thousands of dollars in corporate revenue. Sounds like a case of money laundering. (I’d be curious to know more about the size of Cruz’s audience. I just don’t think there are many people out there eager to listen to a show hosted by Teddy Cancun. If that’s the case, why do advertisers keep pouring money into it?)
If you’re concerned about the children of presidents profiting off their fathers’ political ties, I assume you’d be very interested in this New York Times article about one Jared Kushner, whose $3 billion investment fund is funded almost entirely by foreign investors Kushner worked with while serving in the White House.
Alex Thompson of Politico reports the DNC paid President Biden’s legal bills incurred during the investigation into his handling of classified documents. The Biden campaign often criticizes Trump for using campaign funds to pay his legal bills.
Right-wing House Republicans rebelled against leadership once again by defeating a rules vote on the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA). This is the seventh time this Congress a rules vote (traditionally passed along party lines) has failed in the House. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson brought it up for a vote, but Trump took to social media to encourage GOP members to defeat it. A bipartisan majority did eventually pass a bill to reauthorize FISA, but not before another bipartisan group of left-wing and right-wing legislators forced a vote requiring the House to reconsider the bill next week.
Punchbowl News reports Speaker Johnson must choose between either passing Ukraine aid or remaining Speaker.
Don Trump and Mike Johnson want to pass a bill that would make it harder for non-citizens to vote in federal elections. Yet non-citizens can’t vote in federal elections (and no state allows them to vote in state elections, either) and instances of non-citizens voting are extraordinarily rare. I wish they’d crack down on bear attacks.
Congressional negotiators have struck a deal on a bill that would make privacy a consumer right.
The Biden administration finalized rules that would require utilities to reduce the level of “forever chemicals” in drinking water to the lowest measurable amount.
In an effort to regulate online and gun show sales of firearms, the Biden administration has approved the broadest expansion of background checks in years by requiring anyone who sells guns for profit to register as a gun dealer.
The Biden administration announced yet another round of student loan cancellations, this time amounting to $7.4 billion in loans.
Stef W. Kight and Stephen Neukam of Axios look at Arizona, which is shaping up to be ground zero in the 2024 election.
Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law a bill that strips local authorities of their power to appoint citizen oversight boards to review investigations of police misconduct. Only local police agencies are now allowed to set up their own oversight boards.
Colin Campbell of North Carolina Public Radio reports Republican North Carolina gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson told a church audience last year that “love” sometimes means “hold[ing your young one by one arm and beat[ing] them in a circle, because they were bad.”
Two Republican lawmakers in Maine claimed the mass shooting that occurred at a bowling alley in the state last year that took the lives of nineteen people was God’s way of retaliating for Maine’s recently passed abortion law. “When (L.D.) 1619 passed and went into law on Oct. 25, you told God life doesn’t matter,” one of the lawmakers said. “Keep in mind that the law came into effect on Oct. 25. God heard you and the horrible events on Oct. 25 happened.”
A Republican lawmaker in Colorado left a loaded automatic handgun in a restroom in the state Capitol building. The legislature is debating a bill that would ban guns in the Capitol. The lawmaker issued an apology.
It’s 2014 and the Tennessee legislature has passed a law making it illegal for first cousins to marry, but not before a Republican lawmaker tried to water the bill down.
A liberal justice on the Wisconsin Supreme Court will step down, setting up another contentious judicial election in Wisconsin this fall.
Prices rose 3.5% from a year ago in March, marking a small acceleration in inflation and casting doubt on whether the Fed will lower interest rates in the near future. My sense is it appears inflation has settled into the 3% range, which is higher than the preferred 2% range but not unprecedented over the past thirty years.
Mortgage rates are nearing 7%. Rates had dipped up 7% in December.
Pras Subramanian of YahooFinance looks at why the cost of automobile insurance is rising so rapidly. (One cause: Bigger and heavier vehicles are leading to more severe injuries.)
US intelligence expects Iran to carry out an attack soon on Israel in retaliation for a missile strike that killed a top Iranian general in Damascus.
Joby Warrick of the Washington Post observes that six years after Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement, Iran has accumulated enough enriched uranium that it is now days to weeks away from possessing a nuclear weapon.
Barak Ravid of Axios writes that the Gaza War is currently in limbo, which may buttress Netanyahu’s perilous political position in Israel.
President Biden said Netanyahu’s approach to Gaza is a “mistake” and pushed Israel to call for a ceasefire.
U.S.A.I.D. Director Samantha Power told Congress a famine is underway in northern Gaza.
In a landmark ruling, an international court ruled Switzerland had violated its citizens’ human rights by failing to reach carbon emission reduction goals.
Vincent’s Picks: Ripley
It’s been twenty-five years since the release of Anthony Minghella’s adaptation of Patricia Highsmith’s 1955 suspense novel The Talented Mr. Ripley starring Matt Damon, Gwyneth Paltrow, and Jude Law. That film came out at the end of the legendary cinema year of 1999, but while Minghella’s movie was well-received and positioned as a contender in award season, it didn’t garner many nominations, and retrospectives of ‘99 tend to only namedrop the film before extolling the virtues of movies like Being John Malkovich, Magnolia, Election, The Blair Witch Project, Fight Club, and The Matrix. Yet The Talented Mr. Ripley still found an audience that has been fascinated by the titular con man ever since.
Audiences can now reacquaint themselves with Tom Ripley thanks to Ripley, an 8-episode limited series by Steven Zaillian (The Night Of, screenwriter of Schindler’s List, Moneyball, The Irishman) now streaming on Netflix. Ripley follows the plot of The Talented Mr. Ripley, so if you’re familiar with the book or film, don’t expect many surprises. It does cast Tom Ripley in a different light, however—more black-and-white, just as its filmed—so viewers will likely find themselves developing a new outlook toward the main character.
For the uninitiated, Tom Ripley is an unremarkable young man living in early 1960s New York City where he scrapes by running confidence schemes that always end up fizzling out. Due to a case of mistaken identity, Ripley is hired by shipping magnate Herbert Greenleaf to travel to Italy to convince Greenleaf’s wayward son Dickie to return home. Upon arriving in Italy, Ripley and Dickie become friends, and Ripley grows enamored with Dickie and his girlfriend Marge’s carefree lifestyle. Yet Marge and later Dickie begin to grow suspicious of Ripley as his backstory starts to fall apart and his odd behavior veers toward the unsettling. They’re right to be suspicious, too, as we see Ripley practicing an impersonation of Dickie. Marge thinks Ripley has grown infatuated with her boyfriend. We wonder what sort of con Ripley is about to pull. But then the story takes a dark turn.
Ordinarily, the audience is supposed to have a rooting affection for Ripley, a hustler whose actions may be abhorrent but who we want to see get away with it so he can fleece the rich and foil the state. Yet as portrayed by Andrew Scott, best known for playing a deranged Moriarty on Sherlock and the Hot Priest on Fleabag, Ripley is an amoral psychopath, an emotional flatfoot who has to consciously remind himself to smile. We sense Ripley should know better, too, as he often dreams of being submerged in dark water and constantly notices the visages of saints and angels observing him from works of art everywhere he travels. But then again, the police always seem to have an eye on him, as well, and he regards them with disdain. Were this Ripley to come eye to eye with God, he’d turn it into a starring contest.
That doesn’t mean we’re supposed to have tremendous sympathy for Dickie or Marge either. Living off a family trust fund, Dickie—played with a 50s-era insouciance by Johnny Flynn (Stardust)—has holed himself up in a villa on the Amalfi Coast where he spends his time painting and sunbathing on the beach. His artwork is awful, the sort of modern art that gives credence to the claim that anyone could paint crap like that. Still, he’s wealthy enough to be able to hang a Picasso from his walls. Marge (Dakota Fanning) is a bit more of a cypher. She’s serious about writing but is as bad at it as Dickie is at painting. Marge sees right through Ripley from the start, though, and doesn’t like how he insinuates himself into Dickie’s life.
There’s a clear class conflict here. Ripley yearns to be as well-off as Dickie and Marge but also resents the couple for their wealth, especially since they’ve done nothing to earn it. They waste their days away while Ripley has to constantly scheme to keep his head above water. (Maybe that’s what those dreams are about: Not being swallowed up by guilt but by capitalism.) Dickie and Marge are nice enough but also get caught looking down their noses at Ripley. They find him annoying not only because he’s kind of weird but because he casts a shadow over their ex-pat dream world.
Yet in this version of the Ripley story, Dickie and Marge are granted their victimhood. They’re not exactly warm and likeable, but they don’t earn our resentment either. At the same time, it doesn’t feel right at all to root for Ripley, who’s a crook from day one, targets two people who don’t have it coming to them, and makes enough mistakes and arouses enough suspicion that viewers should feel he deserves to get caught. Maybe that makes Andrew Scott’s version of Ripley more relevant to our times than the one played twenty-five years ago by the more charming Matt Damon: If your resentment leads you to root for the monster, don’t be surprised when the monster does monstrous things.
With eight 45-60 minute episodes to watch, Ripley is a work of “slow TV” that is close to three times longer than The Talented Mr. Ripley. If you’re just in it for the story, you’ll probably want to stick to the movie. I liked the limited series’ pacing, however, as it allows Zaillian to linger over shots of Italy and scrutinize the inscrutable expressions of the lead actors. We’re always looking for tells, trying to figure out what they’re hiding or what they’re really thinking. And what do we find when we stare into the depths of Tom Ripley? Maybe it takes nearly eight hours to completely confirm what we should have known all along: That there’s nothing there.
Garbage Time: A 2024 NBA Postseason Preview
(Garbage Time theme song here)
The NBA regular season is coming to a close today without too much drama, as the field of twenty teams that will play in the postseason has mostly been set since the beginning of March Madness. In other words, you haven’t missed much if your basketball consumption over these past few months has been a steady stream of Caitlin Clark (I, for one, am still grieving.) Keeping in mind that the final seeding for the playoffs has yet to be determined, let’s get you caught up around the league.
Note: All stats are current through last Friday night’s games.
The good news is if you need to manage your viewing habits this spring, you really don’t need to watch any Eastern Conference series, as the Boston Celtics are the East’s dominant team. They’re the second-most productive offensive in the NBA and close to a top-five team defensively. More importantly, Boston leads the league in point differential at +11.3; only two other teams (the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Oklahoma City Thunder) do better than half that, and both are more than four points shy of matching the Celtics.
Boston isn’t just having a good season; they also appear to be a historically great team. Their net-rating—a good gauge of overall team quality determined by calculating point differential per 100 possessions—is +11.7, which places the 2023-24 Celtics second all-time between the 1996-97 Chicago Bulls (+11.8) and the all-time winningest regular-season team in NBA history, the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors (+11.4). Not bad company to keep.
The Celtics are led by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but the difference makers this season have been Kristaps Porziņģis and Jrue Holiday. Boston GM Brad Stevens traded Marcus Smart for Porziņģis last summer in a move a lot of people questioned, as Smart is a tenacious defender who was considered the team’s heart and soul. Smart, however, has been hurt for most of the season while the 7’2” Porziņģis has excelled by stretching defenses with a 37.5% three-point shooting percentage. Stevens then filled in the defensive gap left by Smart’s departure by acquiring Holiday, an all-NBA defensive first-teamer who had been flipped to the Portland Trail Blazers by the Milwaukee Bucks as part of the Damian Lillard trade.
The result is a team perfectly engineered to compete in the modern NBA. The only question is if coach Joe Mazzulla and the core of Tatum and Brown have what it takes to finally claim the championship, as they’ve wilted in playoffs past. Boston may not need to confront that question, however, if they simply go out and play their winning brand of basketball, which should ultimately prevail over the course of a seven-game series. I’ve got them as the favorite to win it all this year.
As for everyone else in the East, well, no one is within 14 games of the Celtics. One would think the Milwaukee Bucks with Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo would be right there with Boston, but the Bucks are in the midst of a meltdown. Coach Doc Rivers was brought in shortly before the all-star break to turn the Bucks’ season around, but Milwaukee is only 17-18 since. As far as offensive production goes, they’re only a point behind Boston at 119.4, but their subpar defensive rating leaves them with a lowly +3.0 point differential. Maybe they wish they had held on to Holiday. More importantly, though, Antetokounmpo injured his calf last Tuesday evening and was ruled out for the rest of the regular season. Apparently, the injury is similar to the one that cost Kevin Durant a chunk of the 2019 playoffs with the Warriors; when Durant rushed back to help Golden State in the Finals, he tore his Achilles and missed the entirety of the 2019-20 season. Given the state of the Bucks, I kind of doubt we’ll see Antetokounmpo attempt to play the hero in the playoffs, which means Milwaukee is destined for an early exit.
The only other big news out of the East is the return of 2022-23 MVP Joel Embiid to the Philadelphia lineup, which makes the 76ers something of a wildcard in the playoffs. Philly was near the top of the standings in January when Embiid was hurt and have since plummeted into the play-in, which means they could feature in a heavyweight first-round series against the Bucks (or even Celtics if they lose the first play-in game.) They’ve won seven in a row, though, and share identical records with Indiana and Orlando with one game to go, so it’s possible they avoid the play-in all together and land as high as the fifth seed.
No other Eastern Conference team seems to have a shot at taking down Boston: The Cavaliers are in free-fall, Indiana is exciting to watch but terrible defensively, the Knicks are without Julius Randle, and Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo’s Miami Heat finally seem played out. One thing to keep an eye on, though: A potential Milwaukee-Indiana series. There is no love lost between those two teams, especially after Indiana apparently took (and probably switched out) a game ball Antetokounmpo really really wanted to keep.
The Western Conference is a completely different story, where none of the ten qualifiers is an opponent anyone would rest easy against in a seven-game series. The favorites remain likely MVP Nikola Jokić and the Denver Nuggets, who seem to have spent the season pacing themselves for a playoff run. I’m a bit surprised they didn’t work to lock up the number one seed earlier, as Denver’s altitude provides the defending champions with the only true home court advantage in the NBA, but this is a team that knows what it takes to win a title regardless.
The other team to watch is the Dallas Mavericks, owners of the NBA’s best record since the trade deadline when they picked up P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford. Point guard Kyrie Irving has proven not to be a distraction this season, while Luka Dončić—barely 25-years-old and likely to come in second for MVP—leads the league in scoring, is second in assists, and did this
and this
in the same night a few days ago. (Did he call bank on that first shot?) Ridiculous; it usually takes a career for an NBA player to collect two highlights like that. Anyway, Dallas is cooking right now, and their best player is locked in.
The Mavericks will play the Clippers in what should be a blockbuster first round match-up. Los Angeles climbed to the top of the West in early February but fell off the pace near the end of the month before settling into the four seed. I thought the Clippers were bound to self-destruct after dropping six straight games following the acquisition of James Harden from the Sixers in early November, but Harden has rejuvenated his career in LA while former starter Russell Westbrook has reinvented his game coming off the bench. Paul George is playing very well right now, too. All that remains to be seen is if Kawhi Leonard can stay healthy this spring and if Harden will finally show up for the playoffs.
The two teams currently tied with the Nuggets at the top of the West are the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves, both of whom have defied doubters all season. OKC is led by All-NBA first-teamer Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Rookie-of-the-Year-if-not-for-Victor-Wembanyama Chet Holmgren. The T-Wolves were expected to slide down the standings after losing all-star Karl-Anthony Townes to injury a few weeks ago, but Minnesota hung in there thanks to the play of likely Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert and emerging superstar Anthony Edwards (who saved a game doing this on March 8
and ten days later did this, which is a felony in most states):
Those are all-time plays. Now the Timberwolves are getting Townes back, returning them to full strength. Given their lack of playoff experience, few will pick either Oklahoma City or Minnesota to make deep playoff runs, but then again, no one picked them to play at this level all season either.
The lower half of the Western Conference bracket is packed with dangerous teams as well. The New Orleans Pelicans will probably snag the six seed and avoid the play-in. New Orleans is getting Brandon Ingram back just in time for the playoffs; he’ll form a formidable trio with CJ McCollum (shooting a career best 42.4% from beyond the arc) and Zion Williamson, who is finally living up to his potential as a number one draft pick.
That means the play-in will consist of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker’s Phoenix Suns, last season’s upstart Sacramento Kings, LeBron James and Anthony Davis’s Los Angeles Lakers, and Steph Curry and Co.’s Golden State Warriors. While all four teams have struggled at points this season, none can be written off. Remember, the Lakers won the in-season tournament, so they’re primed for moments like this. And while many will dismiss Golden State as a shell of their former selves, just note that Draymond Green has (for the most part) gotten his act together since he was indefinitely suspended earlier this season and Klay Thompson has returned to the starting line-up and is pouring in the points again, all of which helps explain why the Warriors have the second-best record in the NBA since the all-star break. Yet two of the four teams listed above will see their season ended before next weekend arrives.
The Western Conference playoffs have the look and feel of a royal rumble. I think Denver and Dallas are the most likely teams to make it to the Finals, but it should surprise no one if either team is bounced in the first round. Whoever does emerge triumphant in the West will have certainly earned the Oscar Robertson Trophy, but my guess is they will also be too bruised and exhausted to contend with whom I presume will be a well-rested Boston Celtics squad. If that happens, the Celtics would move one championship ahead of the Lakers for most NBA titles of all-time and hang their eighteenth banner from the rafters of TD Garden.