Last weekend, former president Donald Trump let it be known he believed he would be indicted for a crime this past Tuesday. The country waited with bated breath for Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg to issue that indictment, but by week’s end, it had not materialized. There is no indication when that indictment may actually occur.
Bragg’s office is investigating Trump’s role in a $130,000 hush money payment he authorized his fixer, Michael Cohen, to make to Stormy Daniels, an adult-film actress Trump in all likelihood had an affair with in 2006. Cohen personally made this payment to Daniels shortly before the 2016 election. Trump would later personally reimburse Cohen for his actions. In 2018, Cohen pled guilty to a number of charges related to the payments and implicated Trump in the scheme. Most legal observers assumed this case had run its course and that Bragg was not inclined to pursue it further, but Bragg reopened the investigation late last year and convened a grand jury to hear evidence in the case less than two months ago.
This has unsurprisingly set Trump off, who is staring down multiple criminal investigations as he embarks on a campaign to win back the White House. The initial message he posted on TruthSocial read
THE FAR & AWAY LEADING REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE AND FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, WILL BE ARRESTED ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. PROTEST, TAKE OUR NATION BACK!
Of course, the last time Trump called on his supporters to “protest” and “take our nation back,” they stormed the Capitol, so that message is kind of disturbing. But then things got really dark this past Friday after Trump posted the following between 1:00 and 2:00 in the morning:
What kind of person can charge another person, in this case a former President of the United States, who got more votes than any sitting President in history, and leading candidate (by far!) for the Republican Party nomination, with a Crime, when it is known by all that NO Crime has been committed, & also known that potential death & destruction in such a false charge could be catastrophic for our Country?
That leaves me with a few questions for Trump:
Who exactly does he foresee dying?
What exactly does he foresee being destroyed?
Who or what will be the instruments of this death and destruction?
I don’t think prosecutors are the type who are easily intimidated, but Trump’s reaction does raise the specter of political violence and his willingness to stoke it for his own political ends. But even if Trump’s supporters aren’t willing to take to the streets in defense of their man, the sight of Trump on trial or being led off to jail may drive Republicans into the former president’s corner at a time when some believe his support within the party is flagging. His die-hard supporters would certainly rise to his defense. More concerning, however, is that wayward Republicans might regard the charges as unjust and politically motivated, an attempt by Democrats to use the legal system to circumvent the political process. That could lead them to boost Trump as a way to rein in what they see as an overzealous Democratic Party. Meanwhile, Trump could play his favorite role—aggrieved victim—and rally Americans who feel oppressed by the powerful and elite behind his cause. He could even do it from his jail cell.
There are many Americans who would like to see Trump behind bars. Some believe he has committed crimes and deserves to be in prison. Others would insist that putting him on trial would expose him for what he is—a criminal, undermine his popular support, and protect the nation from his menace. And then there are those who viscerally dislike the man and his politics and would love nothing more than to see him punished.
But even if you assume the purest motives here, there is the question of whether it is wise to prosecute popular political figures, particularly those like Trump who carry on as demagogues. History has shown us the prosecution of political figures often becomes a political flashpoint, with those who are put on trial or imprisoned often using the episode to boost their popularity with the masses. If they are able to reacquire power, they may exact revenge against the opposition and destroy the institutions that would otherwise hold them accountable for any further misdeeds. Just look at how Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently used his corruption trial to return to power. Now Netanyahu is using his reacquired position to gut the Israeli judicial system as payback and consolidate his hold on power. Trump would likely follow the same playbook: Attempt to turn his moment of maximum vulnerability into a political comeback. If he succeeds, he might then move to make his enemies pay while ensuring the system could never come after him again.
So there’s the question: Is it wise for prosecutors to use the legal system to go after Trump even if they have good reason to do so? And if so, is Bragg’s case (or any other case for that matter) well-suited for prosecuting a political figure like Trump?
There are two schools of thought when it comes to charging presidents, ex-presidents, and presidential candidates with crimes. The first is that presidents are ultimately accountable to the people, meaning it is up to voters and their representatives to render their verdict on a president’s alleged misdeeds through the political process. In this way, the American people punished Trump at the ballot box in 2020 when they voted him out of office and will have the opportunity to do so again in 2024.
Related to this is the concern that holding a president accountable through legal rather than political channels runs the risk of turning the legal system into a political weapon the president’s opponents can use to undo the verdict of the voters. It is very easy for a president’s opponents to view the president as “criminal”: Perhaps they regard a president’s actions as overreach or an abuse of power, or maybe they believe the president doesn’t have a legitimate claim to office. If they can’t beat the president politically, the temptation is to prosecute and throw the “crook” in jail. Any charge will do. The problem is that short circuits the political process, subjects a whole policy agenda to what might be a relatively minor offense, and places the head of government at the mercy of prosecutors, judges, and juries. On top of that, prosecuting a president might normalize the practice, turning it into a standard tit-for-tat political tactic.
Furthermore, if a portion of the population comes to regard the prosecution of a president as politically-motivated and a threat to a political agenda they would like enacted, the president’s supporters may rally around that president and turn his person into their cause. This is what many pundits on the Right are warning the country about right now: Charging Trump with a crime will strengthen rather than weaken him. They argue even Republicans who are fed up with Trump may come to his defense if they see his prosecution as an attempt to keep the Republican Party out of the White House.
The other school of thought on this is more straightforward: The president is not above the law and should be just as accountable to the law as any other citizen of this country. (One can even argue the politically powerful ought to be subject to greater legal scrutiny than the average citizen given their influence over society.) Allowing an unlawful president to skate can have awful consequences by suggesting presidents can get away with anything so long as they retain a politically significant reservoir of support. (I get a kick that many of those screaming “moral hazard” when it comes to bank bailouts want people to cool their jets when it comes to holding Trump accountable for his misdeeds.) In a nation of laws, the rule of law should prevail no matter the politics of the moment or the politics of a situation. “It’s politics” is not a legitimate reason to ignore criminal behavior.
This is a debate that doesn’t have a satisfactory resolution. The law does not operate in a vacuum, and no matter how righteous a charge or objective a legal proceeding may be, indicting a president and putting him on trial could stir up forces that push our legal and political systems to the brink or beyond. A DA can’t pretend it’s possible to compartmentalize here, that the decision to prosecute the leading contender for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination can be made without regard to the political consequences of prosecuting the leading contender for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. But justice isn’t supposed to bend to power and public opinion, either. Ask Atticus Finch: A good legal system is supposed to be able to resist popular pressure and mob justice. Turning a blind eye to criminality in our highest levels of government for the sake of political peace may not ultimately preserve our political system but undermine it. It also seems ridiculous to assume popular politics can resolve this sort of problem; voters enter the voting booth with many weighty concerns on their minds and can’t be counted on to act as a jury with so much else at stake.
Many people assume prosecutors take every instance of criminality they spot to court. They don’t. They instead exercise discretion. It requires a sense of prudence. They look at the evidence to see if they have a convincing case, weigh the credibility of witnesses, consider the arguments the defense might make, figure out what charges might stick, and determine what deals they might make. Nothing’s automatic. We should expect the same when it comes to prosecuting Trump. It’s just that when it comes to prosecuting a once and potentially future president, there are far more factors that need to be taken into consideration, including potential political repercussions.
Of course, no one can know for sure how Trump’s supporters would react to an indictment and a prolonged trial. I assume they would be fighting mad, screaming about political persecution. But Trump’s primary opponents might also see it as an opening to needle Trump and impress upon voters that it’s time to move on from his circus show. It isn’t hard to imagine Ron DeSantis telling crowds the Democrats are being very unfair to Trump but that he’ll never put himself in a position that makes it so easy for Democrats to drag him into court. “You’ll never see me paying off porn stars for their silence, and you’ll never find classified documents in my backyard tool shed,” he might say. “And instead of needing to call the Georgia Secretary of State to see if there’s a way to scrounge up a few more votes in my favor, I’ll just win the state outright.”
That’s peering awful far into the future, though. Prosecutors have no idea how other political actors will actually react to an indictment, a trial, or a potential verdict. I wouldn’t want prosecutors deterred from going after Trump because they fear the wrath of the mob. What they should fear, however, is stirring up the wrath of the mob with a case that’s hard to justify in the court of public opinion or ending up with little or nothing to show for it. A wounded yet vindicated Trump—a survivor, essentially—could be very problematic politically. Prosecutors should heed Omar Little’s advice: “You come at the king, you best not miss.”
A good case—one that wouldn’t afford Trump an escape hatch and that could on its merits withstand the inevitable eruption of the mob—would meet at least four criteria: 1.) The charges would be significant enough to justify dragging the country through the ordeal of a trial; 2.) The charges would be directly related to Trump’s fitness to hold the office he seeks; 3.) Trump’s own actions and words would clearly implicate him; and 4.) The law would clearly speak to the crime and Trump’s actions.
For that reason, Bragg would be wise not to press ahead with the hush money case. Bragg probably does have the goods on Trump when it comes to Trump’s own comments, Cohen’s testimony, and Daniels’ phone records. It’s a somewhat convoluted case, however, that depends on an untested legal theory: That the state of New York can turn a state misdemeanor charge against Trump into a state felony charge by claiming Trump violated a state law (falsifying business records) to cover up a federal violation (breaking campaign finance regulations.) It’s not clear if a federal law can be used that way in a state court.
Even if that hurdle can be cleared, though, the case probably isn’t significant enough to bother with. The weird thing about the case is all this would have been legal had Trump made a publicly disclosed campaign-related payment of $130,000 to his law firm as a “legal expense,” which his law firm could have then discreetly channeled to Daniels. In other words, it’s not that the hush money payment was illegal, but rather how he went about making that payment. And while Trump probably panicked in the moment and committed himself to an illegal hush money arrangement rather than a legal one, he might say in court the reason he acted the way he did was to keep the public, his wife, and his family from learning about his affair with an adult-film actress. The question posed to the American public would become whether Trump should go to jail for artlessly trying to keep an affair under wraps. As scandalous as that all seems, I suspect the American people would eventually see it as a sideshow, which would undermine the public legitimacy of the case.
The other two cases against Trump are easier to legitimize in the court of public opinion. The case involving Trump’s possession of classified documents is the most clear cut. Trump took dozens of classified documents with him when he left the White House. He was not authorized to have those documents. The federal government asked for their return. Trump resisted efforts to retrieve them. The FBI had to raid Mar-a-Lago to get them back. The case is significant because it involves classified documents and reveals that Trump cannot be trusted with the United States’ most sensitive intelligence. He has admitted to hording the documents.
Yet while this is a pretty open-and-shut case, there are three factors working against a criminal prosecution here. First, in the months after the raid, it was discovered both Joe Biden and Mike Pence also had classified documents in their personal possession. While they immediately returned those documents upon their discovery, and while they had far fewer documents than Trump, the decision to only prosecute Trump could easily be portrayed as unfair. Secondly, it is not clear yet how sensitive the documents in Trump’s possession were. That makes a difference, as (for example) it wouldn’t make much sense to prosecute Trump for having open source intelligence. Finally, and maybe most importantly, the public may conclude it is unnecessary to prosecute Trump now that the government has recovered the documents.
In my opinion, the Fulton County election subversion case is the strongest case. It involves a very clear attempt by Trump to overturn the results of an election he himself had contested. The case is significant because Trump’s unlawful actions imperiled the electoral process underlying American democracy, while his willingness to undermine the election to further his own ambitions reveals he is not fit to hold office. His own words—“find 11,780 votes”—condemn him, and members of his own party would testify against him. If Trump was charged with a crime, convicted, and sentenced to prison, the public could understand the prosecution as part of an effort to protect American democracy from someone who would subvert it. The main hurdle, it seems, would be convincing the public Trump should be prosecuted for a scheme that did not pan out, although the possibility Trump might try again should be strong enough justification.
There is a strong desire among Democrats to see Trump punished for everything he’s put this nation through over the past eight years. Yet so much of what Trump has done that has angered Democrats does not come with a codified set of consequences. The fear of what more Trump might do to this country also leads Democrats to want to remove him from the political playing board using any legal means at their disposal. Yet there is nothing that would keep Trump from running for president from jail. As righteous as any of the criminal cases against Trump may be, he will probably only be vanquished through political means. He and his political supporters will need to be out-argued, out-organized, and out-voted.
So no matter what, at the end of the day, it will be politics rather than the law that stops Trump. His defenders seem to agree that this ought to be settled in the political rather than the legal realm as well. I’m fine with that, because in a court of law, only Trump can be put on trial. In the court of public opinion, though, it’s not only Trump but his supporters and enablers who can and need to be held accountable for the damage they’ve inflicted on this country. They have a lot to answer for, and the American people should be a very unforgiving jury.
For more on how sensitive it is to investigate a political figure, see “Trump Inquiries Present a Stress Test for Justice in a Polarized Nation” by Glenn Thrush and Adam Goldman of the New York Times
Signals and Noise
Here’s an overview of all the ongoing criminal investigations into Trump.
Excellent point from Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: “To those who believed that the secret to banishing Mr. Trump was to deprive him of attention — that ignoring him would make him go away — he has shown that to be wishful thinking.”
A judge in the case involving Trump’s classified documents ruled there is evidence Trump deliberately misled his own lawyers about the case, which eliminated attorney-client privilege and compelled Trump’s lawyers to testify and turn over their communications with Trump.
Trump held a rally in Waco, Texas, during the thirty-year anniversary of the showdown at David Koresh’s Branch Davidian compound, an event that launched the modern-day militia movement.
Tim Alberta writes in The Atlantic that Trump is losing ground with Christian conservatives after he blamed the pro-life movement for Republican losses in the midterms.
Point/counterpoint: Andrew Romano of Yahoo News finds Ron DeSantis’ signature policies poll very poorly. But Josh Barro notes DeSantis has pursued many mainstream policies as governor of Florida (raising teacher pay, protecting the Everglades, etc.) that have made him very popular in state and that signal to voters he knows how to govern.
Some DeSantis allies are wondering if he’s really ready to run for president.
Ron Brownstein writes in The Atlantic about how and why working-class white voters became the foundation of today’s Republican Party.
Victoria Guida of Politico looks at whether the Fed dropped the ball when it came to preventing the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The recent unease in the banking sector has not convinced Republicans to move on from the faux debt ceiling showdown they are orchestrating.
From Simon Bazelon and Milan Singh of Slow Boring:
Vlad Putin drove to Mariupol, Ukraine, to film an episode of House Hunters.
Russia’s months-long attempt to capture the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut may have finally stalled.
Garbage Time: The Biggest Question Facing Every Major League Team (A 2023 MLB Preview)
(Garbage Time theme song here)
AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
Baltimore Orioles—Is the youth movement for real? Sure, why not? Baltimore has one of the best minor league systems in the biz, and it’s producing for them right now. Adley Rutschman is already one of the game’s top catchers, Gunnar Henderson is a future star at third base, shortstop Jorge Mateo is very fast, and Ryan Mountcastle is a serviceable first baseman. Combine that with established outfielders Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander and you’ve got the makings of a team that can improve on their surprising 83-79 season. The catch is their rotation, which, look, when Kyle Gibson is your #1 starter, maybe that’s cause to temper your expectations. Every year, though, there’s always a team that comes out of the blue and overachieves, so why not the Orioles?
Boston Red Sox—Did someone finally find and lock away Chris Sale’s voodoo doll? It’s been a rough, ahem, ride for Sale over the past few years. He got off to a terrible start in 2019, then got shut down for the rest of that year in August due to elbow inflammation. When the pandemic delayed the start of the 2020 season, Sale elected to have Tommy John surgery. That kept him out for most of 2021, too. Boston had high hopes for him in 2022, but a stress fracture in his ribs kept him sidelined until July. Then, in his second start back, this happened:
No, I’m kidding, it didn’t really happen like that. What happened was Sale took a line drive off his left pinky, which made me think of that clip because it’s funny when Homer points at the pitching machine and gets hit in the hand. Then a few weeks later, to add insult to a literal injury, Sale fell off his bike and broke his wrist. So far in 2023, though, Sale is healthy, so (sorry!) fingers crossed! And what about the Red Sox? A brutal age of ice and darkness has descended upon Boston with no signs of abating, chilling the souls of Fenway’s faithful and leaving their hearts full of unceasing dread and despair.
New York Yankees—Will Aaron Judge hit 60 home runs again? I doubt it. He might need to, though, to keep his team afloat. Sure, they won 99 games last year and they’re still heralded as an elite American League squad, but did they ever really feel like a 99-win team? Age is bound to catch up with these guys at some point if it hasn’t already. Their major offseason acquisition, pitcher Carlos Rodon, is already hurt. The rest of the Yankees’ starting pitching—Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino (oops, headed for the IL), Frankie Montas (hurt), and Domingo German—will probably carry them into the postseason. They could really use some twentysomething energy, though. Word is they’ll get that from shortstop prospect Anthony Volpe, whom many are hyping as the second coming of Derek Jeter, but every shortstop the Yankees call up to the majors is going to get that treatment. I’ve got this team on implode watch.
Tampa Bay Rays—When will Tampa Bay raze their stadium? See what I did there? They do play in an awful ballpark. Hey, Wander Franco is back! TB has one of the best starting rotations in baseball. The Rays will math their opposition to death. They’ll probably do just enough to make the playoffs. I’m tired of writing about this team so I’m going to stop now.
Toronto Blue Jays—Is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. back to the 2021 version of himself? Vlad Jr. was very good in 2022 but he wasn’t the player he was in 2021 when he had people debating whether he or Shohei Ohtani deserved the AL MVP award. (Ohtani’s unicorn-ness threw people for a loop that year but voters came to their senses and honored the equivalent of Babe Ruth. Voters were confronted with the same question last season, too, but this time gave the award to the Yankee who hit enough home runs to get himself mentioned in the same breath as the Babe.) Guerrero’s underwhelming season translated into an underwhelming season for the Jays as well, who never seemed to challenge the Yankees in a division they should own. Should the 24-year-old Guerrero turn it on, however, Toronto could dominate the league. The Jays have one of the top offenses in baseball, an excellent 1-2 top of the rotation in Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman, and a reliable closer in Jordan Romano. The addition of Daulton Varsho is one of the better under-the-radar moves of the offseason. If anyone’s making a run at Houston, it’s Toronto.
AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
Chicago White Sox—How much difference does a manager make? Hall of Fame manager Tony La Russa first managed the White Sox from 1979-1986. White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf long regretted letting La Russa go, so he gave the HOFer another shot with the team in 2021. The move was not welcomed in Chicago, as many fans believed La Russa was too out of touch with the modern game, too old school in his demeanor, and too racist. His first season back with the team went well—a 93-69 record and an ALC division championship—but the second was a different story. I like watching White Sox games because they have good announcers (Jason Benetti and Steve Stone) but the baseball was either a joyless grind or a sad comedy of squandered opportunities. There was also that time La Russa intentionally walked Trea Turner on a 1-2 count with a runner on second and two outs only to see his pitcher give up a go-ahead home run to a disrespected Max Muncy. Something like that can lose you a clubhouse. By the end of August, the White Sox were 63-65 and La Russa’s doctors told him he needed a pacemaker. La Russa never made it back to the dugout. The White Sox responded by winning 10 of their next 13 games. Take that, Tony! But then the White Sox lost 11 of their next 15 to end the season 81-81. Chicago is a talented team and should be electrifying to watch. They finally seem healthy. New manager Pedro Grifol has never helmed a big league team before. If he just gives his players room to breathe again, the White Sox could make good on their promise.
Cleveland Guardians—Is someone finally going to let this team lose? No one is going to mistake Cleveland for a powerhouse, yet somehow this squad—which put together a 12-4 run in August and a 21-4 streak in September—ended up tied for the third best record in the American League last year and entered the playoffs as the team no one wanted to play. Maybe it’s because Shane Bieber is an ace, Emmanuel Clase anchors one of the best bullpens in baseball, and Jose Ramirez is one of the most feared hitters in the league. Yet their one big free agency signing—Josh Bell—seems like a hedge in the event they find themselves in contention again and need some extra power. (New catcher Mike Zunino is no slouch in that regard either.) Someone’s got to win this division, after all. Otherwise, it just might be time to start that rebuild.
Detroit Tigers—Is there any hope for the Tigers this year? No, they were terrible last year, they’ll be terrible this year, they’ll be terrible next year, and they’ll probably be terrible the year after that, too.
Kansas City Royals—Wait, the Royals were worse than the Tigers last year? Yep, by one game. No one thinks the Royals will take it home this year. Not a single one! I don’t feel it! No matter what the Royals say, I will not be putting any respect on their name!
Minnesota Twins—Just how sturdy is Carlos Correa’s ankle? Shortstop Carlos Correa signed a one-year deal with the Twins last year to prove he deserved a top-dollar contract. He convinced San Francisco (but not me; I dropped him from my fantasy league team midway through the season because he was so underwhelming) to give him $350 million over 13 years. The Giants were set to announce their shiny new signing at a press conference until a physical flagged a problem with Correa’s lower leg and the whole deal was scrapped. The deep-pocketed Mets immediately swooped in with a 12-year, $315 million deal, but before you’re like, “What were the Mets thinking?” (indeed, what were the Mets thinking?) they too conducted a physical, spotted the same problem, and tore up the contract. That left Correa slinking back to the Twins for $200 million over 6 years, which seems like a lot of money for a small-market team to hand over to a guy two other teams are worried is going to blow a tire running out a routine ground ball to first. It also re-teams Correa with outfielder Byron Buxton, who is one of the top ten if not top five players in the league when he’s not in traction. That’s a lot of hope riding on two guys who seem destined for the IL.
AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
Houston Astros—Can Houston win back-to-back World Series? They’re set up to run it back. Yes, they lost Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, but he’s also 40 years old, so he was never part of the team’s long-term plans anyway. Regardless, they’ve still got three top of the line starters in Cristian Javier, Framber Valdez, and Luis Garcia. Ryan Pressly, who was on the mound when the Astros vanquished the Phillies last fall, anchors the bullpen. Offensively, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are All-Stars and Houston upgraded at first base by poaching former MVP Jose Abreu from the White Sox. There are injury concerns, though. Yordan Alvarez, one of the most feared hitters in baseball, is still on the mend and may not be ready for Opening Day. Also, second baseman Jose Altuve—the team’s heart and soul—broke his thumb during the World Baseball Classic and will be sidelined for an indefinite period of time. They’ll both be on the field come the postseason, however. The only thing really working against a repeat is the unlikelihood of that happening: The last time a team won back-to-back World Series was in 1998-2000, when Derek Jeter’s Yankees threepeated. That doesn’t mean a team built like the Astros won’t be in the October equation, though.
Los Angeles Angels—Will Shohei Ohtani be an Angel at the beginning of August? Babe Ruth analogue Shohei Ohtani is 28 years old and headed into free agency at the end of the 2023 season. He plays alongside Mickey Mantle analogue Mike Trout. The Angels, meanwhile, are tied with the Detroit Tigers for longest active postseason drought (8 years) while playing in a league that now hands out postseason berths to any team whose groundskeepers don’t mind mowing the outfield come October. Their offseason acquisitions include Swiss Army Knife Brandon Drury (28 HR), starting pitcher Tyler Anderson (2.57 ERA), and outfielder Hunter Renfroe (29 HR), who, if I remember right, seems like he was playing for the Red Sox or Giants 10-15 years ago, but I could be wrong about that. Maybe, just maybe, third baseman Anthony Rendon will finally play, too. Yet does that team excite you? Does it excite Ohtani? Are there fewer than 6 teams better than that in the AL? (Maybe not.) Does team owner Arte Moreno not deciding to sell the team a couple months ago suggest he’s excited about the Angel’s prospects, or does it mean he wants to slash payroll before calling Century 21? And if that’s the case, would Moreno care if the cool kids up on Chavez Ravine came calling for his international superstar?
Oakland Athletics—Are the A’s gonna Moneyball this thing again? Maybe Billy Beane has some tricks up his sleeve, but it’s looking pretty thin in Oakland. As long as we’re talking about Moneyball, though, I read an article the other day about how some statistician concluded that a batter shouldn’t swing during at-bats unless that batter is a future Hall of Famer. (The main quote is something like “swinging is usually associated with negative outcomes.”) Your run-of-the-mill MLB player would score more runs simply by taking pitches. Not sure how Rob Manfred could change the rules to keep that from happening, but if teams knew that was a hitter’s strategy, wouldn’t that make it a whole lot easier for pitchers to strike that batter out?
Seattle Mariners—Can the Mariners re-return to the playoffs? Seattle had gone twenty years without making the playoffs, but last season, not only did they end that streak, but they humiliated the Blue Jays in the ALWS, clinching the series by storming back from a seven-run deficit in Game 2 in Toronto. They even gave Houston a run for their money. The Mariners boast one of the most exciting players in the game, 2022 Rookie of the Year winner Julio Rodríguez, but beyond Luis Castillo, that’s about it. It would really help matters if Jarred Kelenic began living up to his potential. This just feels like a team that’s always going to be sitting there on the playoff bubble, which isn’t necessarily a bad place to be in an American League that only features 2-3 certifiably elite teams.
Texas Rangers—Should Rangers fans get their hopes up? The Rangers are everyone’s hot pick to win a wild card spot this season, but a lot of that anticipation hinges on their big offseason acquisition, perennial “best pitcher in the world” Jacob deGrom, who is either not going to get enough run support or is about to get hurt right about…now. They’re also banking on the end of the shift unleashing Corey Seager, but he seems like the kind of player who never quite lives up to his potential. Texas definitely has a better foundation to work with this season, but they’ve got a lot to prove.
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
Atlanta Braves—Can I sleep on this team yet? No. It was tempting after they won the World Series in 2021 and released Freddie Freeman to assume Atlanta was ready to retool a bit, but they hung in there throughout 2022 and took the NL East title from the Mets at the last minute. They’re bringing back one the league’s most well-rounded rotations along with a well-balanced offense. What’s amazing about the Braves is how they keep finding players: I’m not sure anyone expected Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, or ace Spencer Strider to turn into the players they currently are. And this year they’re sure to rediscover likely 30-30 man Ronald Acuna, Jr., who will be at full strength with that ACL tear fully healed. It’s tempting to write Atlanta off, but that’s mostly because they’re kind of a boring team. They’re just way too resourceful not to consider them contenders.
New York Mets—Are the wheels already coming off this $300 million hot rod? And now for a live look-in at Mets spring training:
I’m pretty sure the Mets are the first MLB team to spend more than $300 million on payroll for one season, and depending on how you count it, the final number could be closer to $350 million even before luxury tax kicks in. This past offseason, they signed 2022 Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander (2 years, $86.7 million), Japanese phenom Kodai Senga (5 years, $75 million), starting pitcher Jose Quintana (2 years, $26 million), and reliever David Robertson (1 year, $10 million) while re-signing Brandon Nimmo (8 years, $162 million) and closer Edwin Diaz (5 years, $102 million). But here’s a picture of Diaz after he picked up a save and Team Puerto Rico rushed the mound to celebrate a win over the Dominican Republic last week in the World Baseball Classic:
Diaz is out for the season. The way the Mets spend money, they’ll just buy a replacement, but Diaz was lights-out last season as both a closer and a fireman. Also, Quintana is out for the first three months. And Senga is complaining about finger tendinitis. And Verlander just turned 40 years old and is two seasons removed from Tommy John surgery. And fellow starting pitcher Max Scherzer (also owed $40 million this season) will turn 39 this summer. New York’s lineup is pretty solid. They have World Series aspirations. But they’re also the Mets, and if something’s going to go wrong, it already is.
Miami Marlins—What’s more exciting: Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s return or Sandy Alcantara’s defense of his Cy Young Award? I’m actually most excited for the return of these unis:
Those uniforms are modelled on the Cuban Sugar Kings, a minor league team that played in Havana from 1946 to 1960. The Marlins have always played around with greener and bluer shades of teal, but that red pops and screams Miami. Let’s just make this their permanent attire.
Philadelphia Phillies—Can the Phillies get back to the World Series? There’s no reason to believe they can’t. Trea Turner is the biggest free agent signing of the offseason and gives the team a few extra offensive dimensions. Now that the shift is banned, Kyle Schwarber is walking around like he’s going to win the triple crown. They’ve got two aces in Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler, and baseball’s best catcher in J.T. Realmuto. Joe Girardi is nowhere to be seen. Still, getting back to the World Series will be an adventure. Bryce Harper is out until the All-Star break. Their bullpen is a high wire act. The outfield will sometimes be patrolled by three guys who aren’t sure which hand their glove goes onto. Whatever this team is lacking, though, will be made up with their cockiness. No team fits their city better than the Phillies.
Washington Nationals—What peaks first: The DC cherry blossoms or the Nats’ 2023 playoff hopes? It’s been a warm winter here in the nation’s capital, so peak bloom for the cherry blossoms is actually already behind us (March 22-24). But come on, the Nationals’ 2023 playoff hopes peaked around the time they traded Trea Turner to the Dodgers in 2021. And until the Lerners sell the team (which, at the rate they’re going, won’t happen for who-knows-how-many cherry blossom cycles) the Nats won’t come close to competing for a playoff spot.
NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs—What do Tucker Barnhart, Cody Bellinger, Eric Hosmer, and Trey Mancini all have in common? You’re correct if you answered, “They’re all once-above-average-to-great players who are on the verge of being washed-up veterans,” but I’ll also give you credit for, “They’re the Cubs’ big free agent signings this year.” What’s going on here? It could be any combination of the following: a.) The Cubs’ rebuild just discovered they have no prospects; b.) Some mad genius Moneyball stat geek sees something in these guys no one else sees; c.) The Cubs’ GM is secretly doing a favor for a Hollywood scriptwriter researching a redemption story about a bunch of over-the-hill baseball players; or d.) It’s a throwback season to pre-lights Wrigley Field when the old players who needed to be home in time to pick up the kids from school would sign as free agents with the Cubs. Yes, I did leave Dansby Swanson off that list of free agent signings. He’s a player in his prime and is a near-elite shortstop but he doesn’t strike me as the foundation of a contender. Also, I thought people named “Dansby Swanson” were legally prohibited from playing on teams outside Georgia.
Cincinnati Reds—If someone gave you two Skyline Chili hot dogs at a Reds game, what should you do with them? Definitely don’t eat those stomach-churning emetics. Instead, you should do what the person in the picture below is doing: Using them to obscure their view of the stomach-churning product on the baseball field.
Milwaukee Brewers—Are the Brew Crew haunted by the Ghost of Josh Hader? For almost the past five seasons, Josh Hader has been the best reliever in baseball. Milwaukee was going to owe him a barrel full of money, so rather than pay up in arbitration, they shipped him to San Diego at the trade deadline last year and promoted set-up man Devin Williams to closer. Yes, Hader did struggle for the Padres, even losing the closer role for a while before regaining his form in September, but the move wrecked the Brewers, who went from a small lead in the NL Central at the time of the trade to 7 games back and out of the playoffs at the end of the season. Trading your ace in the hole can destroy your team’s morale. Still, Milwaukee can count on one of the best rotations in baseball with Brandon Woodruff, a healthy Freddy Peralta, and former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes…or maybe not. A few weeks ago, the Brewers dragged Burnes into arbitration and apparently blamed him for not making the playoffs last year. The judge ruled in the organization’s favor, saving the team a paltry $750,000 (a shade over the minimum big league salary) and now trade rumors are swirling around Burnes. I’m sure the Brewers’ players are inspired to start the season.
Pittsburgh Pirates—Will Oneil Cruz break 100 mph on a throw to first? Because you know the 6’7” phenom has to be thinking about it.
Cruz also has the record for hardest hit ball ever recorded, coming in at 122.4 mph. (Pittsburgh’s announcers call those scorchers “Cruz missiles.”) As for the rest of the Bucs, their best player (Bryan Reynolds) wants out, their best former player (Andrew McCutcheon) is back, and…yeah, I’m really only here for the Cruz highlights.
St. Louis Cardinals—Did the Cardinals really sign Willson Contreras? I was driving through downtown Chicago last year the day before the trade deadline listening to the Cubs game on the radio. The announcers kept saying how this was probably catcher Willson Contreras’ last game in a Cubs uniform. Fans gave him huge ovations every time he came up to bat. And then the next day…he didn’t get traded. Love fest at Wrigley. He’s right where he belongs, at least until he becomes a free agent at the end of the season. It’s all good, though, because it’s an amicable parting of ways. Thank you for your service, Willson, we wish you the best. AND THEN HE GOES OFF AND SIGNS WITH THE ST. LOUIS CARDINALS. TO REPLACE YADIER MOLINA, NONETHELESS. Here’s me hearing the news:
This feels like a troll, like St. Louis is some smug passive-aggressive morning show host showing their hapless viewers how they can turn leftovers into a gourmet meal their dinner guests will rave about. Well I don’t want any of the fancy schmancy food this holier-than-thou franchise is serving, all I want is a Chicago dog and a Mountain Dew. Up yours, St. Louis. Up yours. (I still love you, Willson!)
NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
Arizona Diamondbacks—Did the DBacks finally get rid of their dark gray uniforms? I’m talking about these monstrosities:
What brain genius thought dark gray was a good baseball color? “Let’s go for something drab, but more depressing.” “Yeah, I was thinking along the lines of ‘grease-stained sweatpants.’” “We need something that will make fans wonder if their TVs are starting to dim.” “But pair it with black, really mess with their minds.” “How about a look that screams ‘Cool security guard?’” “By the end of the game, people should think our uniforms are slowly sucking all the light out of the world.” Anyway, Nike is limiting teams to four basic uniforms plus a City Connect get-up this year, and I think Arizona ditched the dark grays to comply. If they have, it’ll make it a little easier to check out Rookie of the Year candidate Corbin Carroll, but honestly, their other uniforms are horrendous to look at, too. I’d advise them to go back to their classic 2001 World Series kit—you know, the ones that looked like a white pinstriped vest over a purple t-shirt—but I don’t care what ESPN says, those were pretty ugly as well. At least just settle on a set of colors!
Colorado Rockies—How many games will Kris Bryant play this year? I don’t know. Does it matter?
Los Angeles Dodgers—Is it just warm in L.A. or are the Dodgers sweating a bit? The Dodgers cruised to 111 wins last season before the National League’s other southern California team sent them packing 3-1 in the NL Division series (see below). In the offseason, Dodgers mainstays Cody Bellinger and Justin Turner left, but so did Trea Turner, one of baseball’s best all-around players. Their big free agency signing was J.D. Martinez, who was a pre-pandemic candidate for MVP but not so much now. Noah Syndergaard replaces Walker Buehler, who is out for the season as he recovers from his second Tommy John surgery. Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts are great but aren’t getting younger. Clayton Kershaw, Chris Taylor, and Max Muncy definitely aren’t getting younger, either. They also just lost Gavin Lux for the season. The Dodgers will have to hope Julio Urias is an ace, that Dustin May recovers his form, and that they’ve got some future stars in their top-notch farm system ready to produce now if they hope to remain atop the National League standings. Los Angeles should still be good, but they appear far more vulnerable than they’ve been for most of the past decade. Winning now may be slightly less of a priority than making sure they’re set up to reel in Shohei Ohtani.
San Diego Padres—World Series or bust, right? Yep. Anything less with a line-up featuring Fernando Tatis, Jr. (back from his PED suspension in mid-April), Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts (formerly of the Red Sox) is a failure. The rotation featuring Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove is solid. Josh Hader at closer will turn close games into eight-inning affairs. But they’ve got to move now. Soto is only under contract for two years, and Snell and Hader could walk by then, too. The expectations game could wear on this team as the season goes along, as well. Two years ago, they were running with the Dodgers and Giants and faded down the stretch. Last year, it took a while for Tatis to come back and when he did, he immediately let the team down by getting suspended for PED use. While a diminished Soto was still way better than the league average, he still didn’t live up to the hype after getting traded from Washington. Prior to his arrival, the Padres were 61-46; afterwards, 28-27. Despite sticking it to the Mets and Dodgers, they were never really in it against the Phillies during the NLCS. If you look at what San Diego accomplished last year, one would believe a nearly full season of Tatis + a restored Soto + a restored Hader + Bogaerts should put them over the top. If they’re not dominating, though, the doubts could sink them.
San Francisco Giants—Two seasons ago, the Giants came out of nowhere and won 107 games. Last year, they went 81-81. The additions of Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa will make up for the losses of Carlos Rodon and Brandon Belt and turn the Giants into contenders once again, right?
Predictions
AL MVP: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
NL MVP: Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies (Runner-up: Manny Machado, San Diego Padres)
AL Cy Young: Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians
NL Cy Young: Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
AL East Champion: Toronto Blue Jays
AL Central Champion: Chicago White Sox
AL West Champion: Houston Astros
AL Wild Cards: New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Angels Cleveland Guardians
NL East Champion: Atlanta Braves
NL Central Champion: St. Louis Cardinals
NL West Champion: San Diego Padres
NL Wild Cards: Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets
AL Championship Series: Toronto over Houston
NL Championship Series: San Diego over Philadelphia
World Series Champion: San Diego over Toronto