Sorry, the days got away from me this week and I was unable to finish my lead article in time. If possible (as in, time permitting) I’ll try to include it in next week’s edition, although I’m going to try to squeeze in a COVID booster, which I’m afraid may knock me down for a few days and make it difficult for me to write. There’s a lot in Signals and Noise this week, though, as well as a Garbage Time article I put together early last week about Major League Baseball’s poor postseason format (and my idea about how to fix it.)
As always, thanks for reading!
Signals and Noise
FRIENDLY REMINDER: Election Day is Tuesday! Races to watch:
Virginia legislative elections
Ohio ballot measure on abortion
Gubernatorial elections in Kentucky and Mississippi
Israel took responsibility for a missile strike on a refugee camp that Israel claims killed a senior member of Hamas but that also took the lives of scores of Palestinian civilians.
The US is pressing Israel for “pauses” in its war so hostages can be released and humanitarian aid provided to Gazan refugees. (I doubt asking Israel to stop bombing every now and then so relief agencies can bring bandages to wounded children will play well, though.) By the end of the week, CNN reported the U.S. was warning Israel it does not have long before international support for their military operation evaporates.
If you had doubts about how awful Hamas is:
HAMAS SPOKESMAN GHAZI HAMAD: We will repeat the October 7 massacre time and again — one million times if we need to — until we end the occupation.REPORTER: Occupation of Gaza?
HAMAD: No, all of Israel.
Keren Landman of Vox has a word of caution about real-time death tolls coming from combat zones.
Farnaz Fassihi of the New York Times reports on the dilemma Iran is facing: With Hamas and Gaza embroiled in a high-stakes war with Israel, does it live up to its fiery rhetoric and go to war with Israel despite the risk of a wider regional war, or does it avoid direct involvement and potentially lose credibility with its proxies?
Josef Federman and Amy Teibel of AP found neither Israel nor the United States have any clue what will happen to Gaza after Israel ends its war there.
By Zack Beauchamp of Vox: “Could Israel Dump Netanyahu in the Middle of a War?” (There is a general sense among Israeli analysts that Netanyahu is nearing the end of his political rope. Israeli voters do not forgive and forget security failures — and this is the greatest in the country’s history, with significant evidence of his own personal responsibility. Though Netanyahu has weathered a lot, including an ongoing criminal trial, his political fall now feels like more of a ‘when’ than an ‘if.’ But even if this analysis is correct, that ‘when’ might not be anytime soon. The next Israeli election isn’t scheduled for another three years, and there’s but the faintest of chances he resigns of his own free will before then.”)
By Edward Luce of the Financial Times: “Netanyahu is an Albatross Around Biden’s Neck”
Muslim and Arab Democrats are furious with Biden over his handling of Israel’s war with Hamas. Democrats more generally are beginning to split over the United States’ support for Israel’s military operation in Gaza. Robbie Gramer of Foreign Policy notes State Department employees are also dissenting over the blank check the Biden administration gave Israel. Former President Barack Obama urged Americans to reckon with the views of both sides in the conflict while acknowledging how difficult it is to be dispassionate on the subject.
FBI Director Christopher Wray told the Senate anti-Semitism in the U.S. is reaching historic levels.
“If somebody asked us after World War II, is there a limit to what you would do to make sure that Japan and Germany don’t conquer the world? Is there any limit to what Israel should do to the people who are trying to slaughter the Jews? The answer is no.”—Republican Sen. Lindsey “Goose” Graham of South Carolina (But there actually should be limits, right? Japanese internment was wrong. Or do you beg to differ, Goose?)
By Will Saletan of The Bulwark: “Republicans Are Rationalizing Cruelty Toward Gaza” (“What the Republican candidates are advocating, in sum, is an abandonment of morals. They’re rationalizing bigotry and cruelty—withholding humanitarian aid, barring child refugees, bombing Gaza without limits—and they’re grounding America’s loyalty to Israel in Jewish and Christian scripture. This isn’t the way to build an alliance against terrorism. It’s the way to feed a religious war.”)
And now Republicans are spreading fake news. From Rep. Cory Mills of Florida, about the situation in Gaza: “What the mainstream media is saying about the indiscriminate fire and the actors—I mean you literally have paid actors who are pretending to be killed, pretending to be treated.”
Speaker Johnson and House Republicans are trying to offset the $14.3 billion Israeli aid package by clawing it back from the Inflation Reduction Act’s additional enforcement funding for the IRS. The Congressional Budget Office said the plan would instead add $12.5 billion to the deficit over the next decade. Johnson’s braindead/cynical response: “Only in Washington when you cut spending do they call it an increase in the deficit.” MORE: “Mike Johnson Just Confirmed How Unserious He Is” by David Firestone of the New York Times (“But then [Johnson] imposed a condition on the Israel money: Mr. Biden must agree to cut the same amount out of the money the Internal Revenue Service uses to chase down high-income tax cheats. So essentially the U.S. can protect Israel as long as it also protects rich white-collar criminals….If Mr. Johnson has substantive objections to helping Ukraine and Israel that justify the legislative impediments he is constructing, he should state what they are….But that would require a serious discussion with serious people. And Mr. Johnson has now shown that he has no place in that room.”)
McConnell’s price for the Israel/Ukraine bill: Major concessions on border security. Republican voters have prioritized border security over Ukraine aid.
“We’ve got three weeks to get this done. If we don’t, we’re telling Russia they can go have Ukraine.”—An anonymous Republican Senator about additional military aid for Ukraine
Sean Hannity assembled a group of House Republicans on FOX News Wednesday night and asked them to raise their hands if they were going to impeach Joe Biden. Like a bunch of sheep, the entire room complied even though their own witnesses have said Republicans lack evidence of wrongdoing.
In yet another sign of how the Republican Party cannot control its most irresponsible members, four Republican senators took to the floor of the Senate in an angry yet futile attempt to get their fellow Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville of Alabama to drop his blockade of 60 military nominees. Tuberville is blocking their promotions over a Pentagon abortion policy. Only one of the nominees has oversight over that policy.
“We’re gonna have a great country – it’s gonna be called the United States of America.”—Don Trump, at the end of a bitchfest about his legal problems
“Well, let’s put it this way. Al Capone, who was a notorious killer, had one indictment, and Donald Trump has four indictments. That would tell you something right there.”—Former HUD Secretary Ben Carson responding to a question posed by CNN’s Abby Phillip about his claim that the Justice Department had been weaponized against Trump. Essay prompt, kids: In what ways is Donald Trump like Al Capone? You have 50 minutes to complete.
Don Trump told an audience in Sioux City, Iowa (he originally referred to the city as Sioux Falls, which is in South Dakota) that he’ll be able to indict Biden because Biden’s Justice Department indicted him, forgetting no law ever prohibited a president from being indicted and that the reason someone gets indicted is because there is credible evidence to accuse that person of a crime.
During a rally in Texas, Trump referred to those imprisoned for rioting on 1/6 as “hostages.”
Steve Bannon told Jonathan Karl the reason Trump chose Waco, Texas, as the site of his campaign reboot is because “We’re the Trump Davidians,” a reference to the cult led by David Koresh whose deadly standoff with the FBI in 1993 has inspired violent anti-government militants. Bannon also referred to Trump’s speech as his “Come Retribution” speech, which was the code word for the Confederate Secret Service’s plot to kidnap and assassinate Abraham Lincoln.
Trump has an interesting new policy proposal: A free, federally-funded national online university called “American Academy” that would be paid for by taxing the endowments of wealthy universities like Harvard. Enrollees would get credit for past course work and an opportunity to apply for federal jobs. The aim: To combat “wokeness” in America’s institutions of higher education. I have so many questions: Am I correct that a Republican just called for a federally-funded public school? Would the Department of Education oversee this entity? What do all the Ivy League educated Republican lawmakers think of this? Would it follow the same blueprint as Trump University?
It looks like this could be Nikki Haley’s breakout moment in the Republican presidential primary.
Nate Cohn of the New York Times digs into Biden’s poll numbers and finds his weakness: Less engaged, younger, more diverse voters who lean Democratic and voted in 2020 but not in 2022. If Biden reactivates those voters, his poll numbers should rise. (Trump’s base is already highly motivated.) If not?
Last week, I thought Democratic Rep. Dean Phillips might draw a fair number of protest votes from Biden in the Democratic presidential primary. But after his first campaign rally—in which a Black woman asked if he supported a ceasefire in Gaza and he shot back by asking her if she cared about Israeli babies (to which she replied she did)—not so much.
In a 2017 speech, new House Speaker MAGA Mike Johnson (Gaetz and Trump’s nickname, not mine) blamed gun violence in the United States on the social movements of the 1960s that led to no-fault divorce, feminism, legalized abortion, and teaching evolution.
Ron Brownstein writes for CNN about how Mike Johnson represents the fusion of the Christian right’s decades old focus on issues related to human sexuality with their more current, more explicit concern about demographic and racial change. MORE: By Matthew D. Taylor for The Bulwark: “Mike Johnson, Polite Extremist” (“There is no contradiction in observing that Mike Johnson is both a mild-mannered, courteous, conservative evangelical Christian and a politically extreme ideologue. He has surrounded himself with some of the most dangerous, anti-democratic Christian leaders in the country—the same people who theologized the January 6th insurrection—and offered them his public support and praise. Is there any doubt about the flock to which he belongs?”)
“We may have had a hot summer but I just went trick or treating with my kids and the low that evening was 29 degrees so temperatures change. Temperatures have been changing for a millennia.”—Republican Rep. Andy Ogles (TN) dismissing climate change as “alarmism” that stands in the way of fossil fuel-based energy independence
Republican Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri plans on introducing a bill to repeal Citizens United.
Yes, this Josh Hawley.
It’s not that surprising, as Hawley has a populist streak to him that aims to put some blue-collar meat on the MAGA bone. Democrats can help him swing his hammer, although his main reason for reining in corporate spending on political campaigns is to keep “woke” companies from meddling in elections.
The FBI is investigating Democratic New York City Mayor Eric Adams’ campaign for accepting money from the Turkish government.
Brian Klaas of The Atlantic looks at the number of people who believe in witchcraft and magic and how wildly irrational beliefs have shaped contemporary politics in the United States and around the world.
Violent crime is plummeting in the United States. The FBI’s annual crime report found a 6% drop in homicides in 2022. The homicide rate is on track to drop a record 10% in 2023. Similar declines are found in other categories of violent crime. (One category that has risen: Car jackings.) If that trend sticks, by the end of 2023, crime rates in the United States will have returned to pre-pandemic levels. Public perception of crime, however, lags these statistics.
According to an AP/NORC poll, 2/3 of American adults report rising household expenses but only 1/4 report income increases.
Yet AP business reporters Christopher Rugaber and Anne D’Innocenzio note consumer spending remains robust despite their gloomy outlook.
General Motors became the last of the big three American automakers to cut a deal with striking autoworkers. The deal resembles the one the UAW made with Ford and Stellantis. UAW President Shawn Fain said he is now interested in a push to organize autoworkers in non-union plants in the South operated by Toyota, Honda, and Tesla. Jonathan Weisman of the New York Times considers the political benefits Biden may now enjoy after joining striking workers on the picket line.
Retail workers told Vox’s Emily Stewart that a big part of the problem with retail theft is that stores aren’t investing enough in anti-theft measures.
Brendan Bordelon of Politico takes a look at Biden’s new sweeping executive order on artificial intelligence.
Nitasha Tiku, Kevin Schaul, and Szu Yu Chen of the Washington Post found that AI image generators have a disturbing tendency to create images based on negative stereotypes. For example, the prompt “attractive people” produced images only of light-skinned people. The prompt “a person at social services” produced images only of non-white people. The prompt “a Latina” generated images of women wearing little-to-no clothing that the Post had to blur. And the prompt “toys in Iraq” generated images of action figures (and even a teddy bear) holding guns in a Middle Eastern urban setting.
Elon Musk bought Twitter for $44 billion. The social media company informed employees this week it is now worth $19 billion.
Last but not least, it seemed this week marked a major turning point in the war in Ukraine, as officials in Ukraine, Europe, and the United States all seemed to acknowledge the conflict has reached a stalemate that has turned into a war of attrition that Ukraine lacks the manpower to sustain; that support for the war is flagging in the West; and that Ukraine will likely need to pursue a negotiated peace in the near future.
Garbage Time: Major League Baseball Has a Postseason Problem
(Garbage Time theme song here)
The important things to know about this year’s World Series are as easy to remember as counting from 1 to 4:
1: The number of championships now won by the Texas Rangers, who defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks in a gentleman’s sweep last Wednesday night. The Rangers, who were established as a new version of the Washington Senators in 1961 and relocated to the Dallas area in 1971, were the oldest team in baseball that had yet to win a World Series. They leave Milwaukee, San Diego, Seattle, Colorado, and Tampa Bay as MLB’s title-less teams.
2: The number of World Series MVP Awards won by Rangers shortstop Corey Seager, who won one three years ago with the Dodgers. Seager joins “Mr. October” Reggie Jackson as the only two-time World Series MVP Award winners. When it comes to postseason play, Reggie Jackson is excellent company to keep.
3: The number of consecutive World Series rings won by relief pitcher Will Smith, who becomes the first player to win three in a row with three different teams. (One would think that would make him a coveted free agent/lucky charm.)
4: The number of titles won by manager Bruce Bochy, who is now only the sixth manager to win that many. He is now tied all-time with the Dodgers’ Walter Alston and the Yankees’ Joe Torre, with only the Philadelphia A’s Connie Mack (5) and the Yankees’ Casey Stengel (7) and Joe McCarthy (7) ahead of him. What sets Bochy apart, however, is that he is the only member of that group to win championships with different franchises, as his first three championships came with the San Francisco Giants.
Yet despite the history made during this year’s World Series, my interest in October baseball had nearly evaporated by the time the World Series started. The problem is MLB’s postseason format makes it hard for me at least to believe baseball’s best teams actually triumph in the end. I’d say the Rangers are a deserving champion, but what does a World Series title mean if people begin to think baseball’s postseason doesn’t effectively determine a champion? That’s a problem Major League Baseball needs to fix.
The issue is that in professional baseball, the difference between winning and losing a game is razor thin. Some ground balls find gaps; others are hit hard right at fielders. A batter who squares up a pitch can send it out of the park, but get under the ball by just a few millimeters and that home run becomes a harmless pop-up. Teams can put runners on base all game without ever scoring. A pitcher can hold an opponent to one run and lose. It’s what makes baseball such a great metaphor for life: Sometimes you get the outcome you deserve, sometimes you don’t, so you just gotta keep grinding it out.
With that in mind, it’s often said every MLB team is fated to win 1/3 of their games and lose 1/3 of their games. That means what separates the good teams from the bad teams is their record in those remaining games, when teams and their players can actually wrestle with their fate. The best teams are those who give themselves the most chances to win those competitive games. Even then, a victory in any single game isn’t guaranteed, but over the course of multiple games, all those extra chances good teams make for themselves will probably begin to turn into a pile of wins. In other words, you can’t judge how good a team is based on the outcome of one game or even a single 3-4 game series. The quality of a team is determined over many games.
A Major League Baseball team happens to play 162 games over the course of a season, which is plenty of time to find out who the good teams are. This year, the four teams with the best regular season records were the Atlanta Braves (104-58, .642), the Baltimore Orioles (101-61, .623), the Los Angeles Dodgers (100-62, .617), and the Tampa Bay Rays (99-63, .611). Yet all were eliminated from the playoffs before the league championship series even started. In all honesty, they hardly distinguished themselves in the postseason as “good” teams, going an atrocious 1-11 against their opponents. It is true some of those teams limped into October and weren’t quite their regular season selves, but none had broken down. Even the Dodgers, who had to resort to starting a washed-up White Sox pitcher in a decisive Game 3 against Arizona, had managed to put together a 100-win season despite their season-long lack of starting pitching. They should have been better, but it’s still unfortunate all of baseball’s best teams got bounced early in October.
Now I can’t complain too much about Texas, Houston, or Philadelphia making deep postseason runs since they tied each other this season for the fifth best record in the major leagues (90-72, .556). Still, they were closer to missing the playoffs than they were to a top four finish. But as exciting as likely National League Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll may be, the postseason success of the Arizona Diamondbacks this year seemed like a fluke. Arizona barely scraped into the playoffs, finishing alongside the Miami Marlins with an identical 84-78 (.519) record. That put them six games back of the Phillies but only a game ahead of the Chicago Cubs and two ahead of the San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds, who themselves only finished one game above .500. The Diamondbacks weren’t necessarily a bad team—they were playing quite well until July, when they entered a nosedive they couldn’t pull out of until mid-August—but they were also no one’s idea of a good team and certainly no one’s idea of a plausible World Series champion.
Some will argue that doesn’t matter. Arizona did what they needed to do to get into the playoffs and defeated the presumably better teams standing in their way. If the other teams actually were better than the Diamondbacks, they would have won. And so long as the games are entertaining and well-played, who can complain about a plucky underdog no one believed in battling their way to postseason glory? Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred made that case himself while defending MLB’s postseason format, stating in a recent interview, “One of the greatest things about the playoffs in baseball is anybody can win.”
Actually, that’s the problem, Rob: Anybody can win. That, more than most other sports, is the nature of baseball. Even the lowly A’s (50-112, .309) could almost accidentally take two of three from any team in the league if given the chance. Thankfully, they aren’t, but MLB gives a lot of middle-of-the-pack teams the opportunity to do just that, while denying time-tested teams the thing they need to prove how good they are: Time.
As a result, MLB ends up diminishing their postseason. Rather than a competition that culminates in the crowning of a deserving world champion, the playoffs are beginning to feel more like a frivolous tournament tacked-on to the end of the regular season. If people begin to suspect the winner of the World Series isn’t baseball’s best team, what’s all the hype about?
Baseball knew how to deal with this problem in the past: They limited the number of teams that made the playoffs. That rewarded the teams who performed the best over six months. It also ensured that a team with a lesser but still stellar record who defeated a team with a better record could still plausibly claim they deserved the title. In 1955, the year the Brooklyn Dodgers finally won the World Series, only two of sixteen teams—the American League champion and the National League champion—played in the postseason. In 1988, when Kirk Gibson and the Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Oakland Athletics, only four of twenty-six teams made the playoffs. Today, out of thirty teams, a field of twelve teams—six division champions plus six wild card qualifiers—have to winnow themselves down to one champion over the course of four weeks in October.
There’s no way a thirty-team league could limit its playoff participants to two or four teams; that would result in a lot of meaningless regular season games for a lot of teams, particularly in the second half of the season. But MLB needs to find a way to accommodate a large field of teams in a short period of time while ensuring that good teams get enough chances for their strengths to ultimately prevail on the field of play. So here’s my proposal: A six-team round robin tournament in each league. Each team plays a three-game series against the five other teams in its league for a total of fifteen games. The team with the best record in the league has homefield advantage throughout, the team with the second best record has homefield advantage except when it goes on the road to play the first-place team, and so on, on down to the sixth-place team, which plays every series on the road. Games are played on consecutive days just like the regular season (meaning teams will have to go with a full rotation of pitchers) with two off-days during the tournament. The teams that finish the tournament with the best record in each league advance to the World Series.
That would be exciting to watch. Six high-stakes games every night for two straight weeks, followed by a winner-take-all best-of-seven World Series. That format would give every team plenty of chances to wrestle with their fate, and it would be hard to deny that the team that emerged from that gantlet wouldn’t be a deserving champion.