I Won Majority-Control of Congress and All I Got Was This Watered-Down Infrastructure Bill?
Be patient: They're making sausage in Washington.
Do you like brats? I like brats. I’m not talking about bothersome kids here. I mean brats like bratwurst. Very popular in the Midwest, particularly in areas settled by German immigrants. I especially like the cheddarwurst variety topped with spicy brown mustard and onions. Delicious.
When I was a kid, my 4-H club went on a tour of the local butcher shop. What I remember most about the outing was learning how brats are made. It basically involves squeezing a bunch of meat into the discarded small intestines of a pig. Remember that this Fourth of July when you’re biting into a brat and your teeth puncture the sausage casing: Mmm…pig guts.
German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck knew a thing or two about sausages and politics. He once reportedly remarked (these quotes are almost always apocryphal) “Laws are like sausages. It’s best not to see how they’re made.” Well, they’re making a bunch of sausage right now in Washington DC. It hasn’t been a pretty process—it never really is—but we may just get a few decent bills out of it if we’re lucky.
Yesterday, the White House announced it had reached a compromise with a bipartisan group of ten senators on a $973 billion infrastructure package. Much backslapping surely ensued. President Biden was excited enough to join those senators on the driveway outside the West Wing to tout the deal.
Less excited: Progressives. The infrastructure bill is way short of Biden’s original $2 trillion-plus proposal and leaves out a lot of the provisions that would have addressed climate change as well as elements related to “human infrastructure” like universal pre-K and paid family leave. The accounting on the bill is also pretty sketch, since it doesn’t raise gas taxes (Democrats said no) or increase taxes on the rich (Republicans said no).
Biden is elated he got five Republican senators—Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Rob Portman of Ohio, and Mitt Romney of Utah—to agree to the infrastructure deal, but that’s still five shy of what’s needed to bust a filibuster. Politico says there are at least eleven who would vote for it. Republican leadership hasn’t shut consideration of it down yet. The question now is if all this bipartisan outreach will end up costing Biden support among Democrats, many of whom are not happy the human infrastructure and climate components have been removed from the bill and justifiably remain skeptical about the utility of pursuing any kind of bipartisan strategy at this moment in political time. Democratic Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut told CNN the bipartisan deal “has 20 votes—not 60 votes” and that the Democratic caucus would need to be sold on the plan before they could support it.
The big question mark remains Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who sounds really tired of being told Joe Manchin’s priorities take precedence over his. Sanders could likely sink the deal if he announced his opposition to it as weak sauce; in fact, a little under two weeks ago, he came out of a briefing about the ongoing negotiations to say he wouldn’t vote for it. There were some signals just before that meeting, though, that Sanders wasn’t worried much about what was actually in the infrastructure bill as he was more focused on crafting the budget reconciliation bill as the vehicle for his priorities. That’s a positive sign since it suggests the Democrats have a master plan for getting all this stuff passed. But what if Democrats are working more independently of one another than they should be and Sanders does end up dissatisfied with the bipartisan deal; would he actually torpedo the bill?
It would be tough for Sanders and the progressive left to say no to a trillion bucks that would put people to work, fix a national problem, check an item off Democrats’ to-do list, deliver Biden a legislative victory that would burnish his bipartisan credentials, and show-up Trump (who couldn’t get Republicans to build anything—even his wall—despite recurring “infrastructure weeks” his mean Tweets always managed to undercut.) Even if the bill came up short, it’s something rather than nothing, which is the nature of the box progressives always seem to find themselves in, much to their frustration. And maybe this is the vote the Democratic pro-bipartisanship caucus composed of Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona need in order to prove to voters back home that they are committed to working across the aisle.
But if that’s what Manchin and Sinema want, then they need to be onboard with the multi-trillion-dollar American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan Sanders is teeing up. Those bills deal with the rest of Biden’s agenda and progressive priorities like pre-K, child care, family leave, community college, and climate change. Manchin indicated a few days ago that he is ready to act on those bills and would be willing to both raise the corporate tax rate to help fund it and use reconciliation to pass it through the Senate with fifty votes.
But Manchin has also indicated those bills’ price tags are too high. What if Manchin were to balk at many of Sanders’ provisions (its easy to imagine him demanding the climate change regulations get stripped out of the bills) or if the spirit of bipartisanship overtook him again and he insisted upon finding ten Republicans to back Sanders’ plan (which would effectively kill the bill)? With the infrastructure bill passed, progressives would have little leverage with Manchin at the negotiating table to counter these moves. Now that Manchin is invested in the infrastructure bill, it may be time for progressives to press their hand and demand everything—infrastructure, the American Jobs Plan, and the American Families Plan—get rolled into one big reconciliation bill negotiated among Democrats.
That probably won’t happen, though, as Manchin wants to redeem the work he put into his bipartisan deal on infrastructure and would draw the line at going it alone this far down the road. All signs are Democrats will move the bills forward in two “tranches”—one for infrastructure, one for everything else. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has insisted the House won’t take up the infrastructure bill until the Senate passes the reconciliation bill, which will hopefully keep Manchin close, and Biden expects Congress will use reconciliation to address everything Republicans won’t go along with. Making passage of the infrastructure bill contingent on Democrats passing everything else through reconciliation could prompt Republicans to abandon ship, however. Politico talked to Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina last night, and when told of the two tranche plan, Graham said he was out, calling it “extortion” and a “suicide mission.” Graham was apparently one of the eleven senators ready to roll on infrastructure. He also has the integrity of a Magic 8 Ball, so maybe he’ll come back around. But there are also rumblings out of McConnell’s office now, too, that he doesn’t like tying infrastructure to reconciliation either.
Maybe that would be for the better. If Republicans backed away from infrastructure, Democrats could still do infrastructure through reconciliation. Democrats could simply roll the bipartisan framework into the bill or alter it by pumping more money into it and refocusing it on Democratic priorities. That alternative might be enough to keep Republicans onboard through passage. Would that lack of bipartisanship keep Manchin and Sinema happy, however, and would they hold back their support for everything just so they can hold hands with Susan Collins? Hopefully not, but emphasizing his willingness to work with Bernie Sanders might be an effective way for Manchin to make sure Republicans stick to his deal rather than poison it.
And one more thing all Democrats involved need to remember is that while infrastructure is great—it’s both good policy and good politics—Democratic voters weren’t clamoring for it in 2020. They want the stuff in the reconciliation bill; to them, that’s the cheddarwurst, and it’s a big part of what will keep them coming to the polls in future elections. And there are plenty of Democrats who are on record about the likely futility of following a bipartisan path in pursuit of Democratic priorities here. Those concerns are justifiable after four years of Trump and 1/6. If the desire to reach across the aisle ends up dooming the reconciliation bill, Biden will have hell to pay.
So here’s how all this could still play out:
Scenario 1 (Cheddarwurst with all the fixin’s): Republicans refuse to go along with the two-tranche plan. Manchin and Sinema finally realize nothing can get done in Washington on a bipartisan basis so they let Schumer advance a reconciliation bill with a bigger infrastructure component and much of what Sanders is asking for. The experience even softens Manchin’s resolve to preserve the filibuster.
Scenario 2 (Spicy jalapeno bratwurst): Republicans go along with the two-tranche plan on the assumption reconciliation will happen no matter what. Manchin and Sinema, willing to play along with Sanders because they’re happy they got a bipartisan deal on infrastructure, raise few objections to Sanders’ ambitions, although bits of it get trimmed here or there to satisfy antsy moderate Democrats and infrastructure-minded Republicans.
Scenario 3 (Regular old beer brat with some sauerkraut): Republicans refuse to go along with the two-tranche plan. Manchin and Sinema conclude nothing can get done in Washington on a bipartisan basis so they let Schumer advance a reconciliation bill, but they insist Democrats keep the infrastructure plan they negotiated with Republicans and put the brakes on parts of Sanders’ plan. The result is still an impressive bill, but one that disappoints Democrats hoping for something more; ten years later, Democrats will look back on it fondly while seeking to improve it.
Scenario 4 (Is it a brat or a hot dog? Where’s the mustard? Why is there ketchup on this?): The two-tranche plan is followed, but Manchin and Sinema get bipartisan fever and insist Biden try to find a way to get bipartisan support for the reconciliation package, which Republicans begin to water down. Democrats balk at everything. Negotiations drag on. The bar for what Manchin and other moderates consider acceptable keeps rising. Even the infrastructure bill gets renegotiated. Prospects for passage crash over the summer. Biden’s approval ratings plunge over the summer recess. Eventually Democrats realize they have to pass something so they slap a reconciliation bill together around Christmas time that Republicans don’t support and makes few Democrats happy. Regrets everywhere.
Scenario 5 (Definitely just a hot dog): Republicans refuse to go along with the two-tranche plan. Manchin and Sinema say Pelosi has to abandon that approach, so the bipartisan infrastructure plan gets done first. Everything else gets bogged down in reconciliation, with Democrats either unable to come to a consensus on what to include in the bill and how to pay for it or Manchin and Sinema opposing big parts of it. But hey: New bridges! Meanwhile, the Sanders 2024 exploratory committee is established.
Scenario 6 (Bun, no brat): Democrats don’t go along with the bipartisan infrastructure bill since they’re unconvinced Manchin and Sinema will play ball with them during reconciliation. This angers Manchin and Sinema, who refuse to sign-on to any reconciliation bill. Nothing gets done. Mitch McConnell grins one of those grins where you can actually see his teeth. Trump calls Biden incompetent for failing to pass an infrastructure bill; polls show 80% of Republicans believe Trump signed an infrastructure bill and is responsible for building the Erie Canal, the Hoover Dam, and the Eisenhower Interstate Highway System.
One advantage Democrats have in all this that shouldn’t be overlooked is that the most experienced sausage-maker since Bill Clinton, if not Lyndon Johnson, is sitting in the Oval Office. Biden knows how the Senate works and has an instinct for what can get a senator to yes. He also seems to really enjoy the political back-and-forth, which is going to be necessary to keep spirits up over the coming months. The challenge, however, is going to be making sure Biden doesn’t simply settle for any old sausage. He needs to deliver a high-quality brat.
Thanks for reading.
Photo credit: Reuters
Exit music: “Bitter Sweet Symphony” by the Verve (1997, Urban Hymns)